Putting Markets in Perspective


Our latest thinking on global economic drivers and financial markets.

Economy

PIMCO’s outlook for major economies over the next six to twelve months

  • Global

    Outlook

    We expect the global expansion to continue in 2019, albeit at a slower pace.

    Implications

    Prepare for higher uncertainty ahead by diversifying portfolio risk.

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  • U.S.

    Outlook

    We expect real GDP growth to slow to 2.0%–2.5%, but the expansion should continue in the near-term.

    Implications

    To take advantage of late-cycle dynamics, we like commodities and inflation-linked assets.

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  • Europe

    Outlook

    Europe faces both near-term and long-term challenges due to political turmoil and softer economic data.

    Implications

    Take a cautious approach when investing in eurozone periphery sovereign debt, and focus on higher-quality assets.

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  • Emerging Markets

    Outlook

    EM economies remain linked to DM economies, but have the ability to cushion against market shocks.

    Implications

    A selective approach to EM asset selection remains key to identifying the most compelling country opportunities.

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Financial Markets

PIMCO’s outlook for key financial markets with implications for investors

  • Fixed Income

    Outlook

    In an environment of higher yields, investors are being rewarded to diversify.

    Implications

    The combination of improved return potential and diversification enhances the appeal of core bonds.

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  • Equities

    Outlook

    Excess returns from stock-picking may continue to be challenged in the years ahead, due to structural factors.

    Implications

    Look beyond traditional stock-picking strategies for more reliable sources of excess returns.

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  • Short-term

    Outlook

    The ratio of yield to risk has improved for short-term bonds.

    Implications

    Attractive yields at the front end of the yield curve present a compelling opportunity for investors.

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  • Credit

    Outlook

    The credit markets offer a variety of risk profiles for navigating an aging expansion.

    Implications

    Consider the risk profiles of the different sectors and how they might affect overall portfolios.

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