EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Taylor rule suggests that further monetary tightening is necessary to address the current bout of inflation. In addition, low unemployment gives the Federal Reserve scope to hike rates further. However, compared with other episodes of inflation since World War II, the sensitivity of the U.S. economy to higher interest rates is exceptionally high. Thus, the Fed faces a dilemma: If it is unflinching in stanching inflation, all risk assets could experience a brutal sell-off; if, as we believe, the cost of controlling inflation is too high, then inflation could remain elevated for longer, which could bolster real assets.
Blog ECB: Lower Cruising Altitude While the European Central Bank cut policy rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% on its deposit facility, the trajectory beyond June remains unclear.
Blog April Inflation Report Unlikely to Alter Fed’s Path April’s U.S. inflation report likely offers some comfort to Federal Reserve officials, but rate cuts are unlikely until we see a more substantial deceleration in inflation.
Blog The Fed: Stuck On Hold for Now Despite the reacceleration of inflation and enduring labor market strength, the Fed remains focused on downside risks.