• This paper proposes a framework for optimal defensive portfolio construction.
  • Defensive strategies are generally characterized by a positive probability that they perform well in down equity markets.
  • The key trade-off among equity equity-defensive strategies is their expected return versus their ability to diversify equity risk in down equity markets. In particular, the more reliable a strategy’s equity-hedging properties, the lower its expected return, and vice versa.
  • In our model, the investor maximizes the portfolio’s unconditional expected return, subject to a constraint on its conditional equity beta.
  • We show that the return to a defensive equity portfolio can be decomposed into a hedging component and a component that seeks to generate returns.
  • We demonstrate that optimal defensive portfolios exhibit better return-defensiveness properties relative to the underlying strategies.

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The Author

Jamil Baz

Head of Client Solutions and Analytics

Josh Davis

Global Head of Risk Management

Steve Sapra

Senior Advisor

Jerry Tsai

Client Solutions and Analytics

Normane Gillmann

Quantitative Research Analyst

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Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.

The analysis contained in this paper is based on hypothetical modeling. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those shown. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have several inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual performance and are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. There are frequently sharp differences between simulated performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular account, product, or strategy. In addition, since trades have not actually been executed, simulated results cannot account for the impact of certain market risks such as lack of liquidity. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or the implementation of any specific investment strategy, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of simulated results and all of which can adversely affect actual results.

Return assumptions are for illustrative purposes only and are not a prediction or a projection of return. Return assumption is an estimate of what investments may earn on average over a long-term period. Actual returns may be higher or lower than those shown and may vary substantially over shorter time periods. Return assumptions are subject to change without notice.

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Beta is a measure of price sensitivity to market movements. Market beta is 1. Carry of any asset is the cost or benefit of owning that asset. Correlation is a statistical measure of how two securities move in relation to each other.

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